Miguel Ferreira, MSc of GlobalData discusses how the Hodgkin"™s lymphoma market to suffer with Adcetris patent expiry but benefit from new competitive landscape, says GlobalData.
Adcetris is the world’s 7MM * (US, 5EU and Japan) market-leading drug and has been the major contributor to the market development of Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) in recent years. In this currently rising market, the initial patent expiry in the US in 2024 is projected to lead to stagnation. However, a new competitive environment that will provide an incentive for new businesses looking to join the HL market might compensate for this, says GlobalData, a leading data, and analytics company.
Adcetris is a proven go-to therapy on the HL market, as it is the only approved medication aimed at a key biomarker CD30 linked to disease. The late projected arrival of pipeline agents with new mechanisms of action to target CD30 will find it difficult to compete as monotherapies with Adcetris and will require an alternative strategy to be developed in the HL market.
Through its combination with Adcetris and AVD, the planned label expansion for Opdivo, the continued adoption of Keytruda and the launch of new pipeline agents would offset the declining sales of Adcetris. These may be inadequate to support market growth as Adcetris biosimilars peak across all 7MM. This will therefore coincide with the advent of a new competitive environment that will ultimately encourage the growth of the market.
As Adcetris falls, Opdivo becomes the new market leader, leaving Keytruda briefly behind as Merck looks to rival Opdivo for combination approaches. A potential Keytruda combination may become the norm of therapy in HL, provided that Keytruda is becoming the preferred monotherapy in the HL industry.